Automatic neural network modeling for univariate time series

نویسندگان

  • Sandy D. Balkin
  • J. Keith Ord
چکیده

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are an information processing paradigm inspired by the way the brain processes information. Using neural networks requires the investigator to make decisions concerning the architecture or structure used. ANNs are known to be universal function approximators and are capable of exploiting nonlinear relationships between variables. This method, called Automated ANNs, is an attempt to develop an automatic procedure for selecting the architecture of an artificial neural network for forecasting purposes. It was entered into the M-3 Time Series Competition. Results show that ANNs compete well with the other methods investigated, but may produce poor results if used under certain conditions.  2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Gyroscope Random Drift Modeling, using Neural Networks, Fuzzy Neural and Traditional Time- series Methods

In this paper statistical and time series models are used for determining the random drift of a dynamically Tuned Gyroscope (DTG). This drift is compensated with optimal predictive transfer function. Also nonlinear neural-network and fuzzy-neural models are investigated for prediction and compensation of the random drift. Finally the different models are compared together and their advantages a...

متن کامل

Univariate modeling and forecasting of monthly energy demand time series using abductive and neural networks

Neural networks have been widely used for short-term, and to a lesser degree medium and long term, demand forecasting. In the majority of cases for the latter two applications, multivariate modeling was adopted, where the demand time series is related to other weather, socio-economic and demographic time series. Disadvantages of this approach include the fact that influential exogenous factors ...

متن کامل

Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in the Modeling of the Ionosphere Total Electron Content Time Series Case Study: Tehran Permanent GPS Station

Global positioning system (GPS) measurements provide accurate and continuous 3-dimensional position, velocity and time data anywhere on or above the surface of the earth, anytime, and in all weather conditions. However, the predominant ranging error source for GPS signals is an ionospheric error. The ionosphere is the region of the atmosphere from about 60 km to more than 1500 km above the eart...

متن کامل

Optimal Modeling and Forecasting of Equipment Failure Rate for the Electricity Distribution Network

In order to gain a deep understanding of planned maintenance, check the weaknesses of distribution network and detect unusual events, the network outage should be traced and monitored. On the other hand, the most important task of electric power distribution companies is to supply reliable and stable electricity with the minimum outage and standard voltage. This research intends to use time ser...

متن کامل

A combined Wavelet- Artificial Neural Network model and its application to the prediction of groundwater level fluctuations

Accurate groundwater level modeling and forecasting contribute to civil projects, land use, citys planning and water resources management. Combined Wavelet-Artificial Neural Network (WANN) model has been widely used in recent years to forecast hydrological and hydrogeological phenomena. This study investigates the sensitivity of the pre-processing to the wavelet type and decomposition level in ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2000